Igcine ukubuyekezwa ngoSepthemba 7, 2022 ngo-12:55 pm
Imakethe yezemithi yomhlaba wonke, elinganiselwa ku-US $ 1.2 Trillion ngo-2019, kulindeleke ukuthi inwebe nge-Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) ka-3-6% iye ku-US $ 1.5-1.6 Trillion ngo-2024.
Okuningi kwalokhu kungenzeka kugqugquzelwe ukukhula komthamo ezimakethe ezithengisa imikhiqizo kanye nokwethulwa kwemikhiqizo emisha esezingeni eliphezulu ezimakethe ezithuthukile. Kodwa-ke, ukuqiniswa okuphelele kwentengo kanye nokuphelelwa yisikhathi kwelungelo lobunikazi ezimakethe ezithuthukile kungase kuqede lokhu kukhula.
I-Outlook, imithelela kanye nezitayela ezivelayo
Izimakethe zase-US kanye nezimakethe zemithi zizohlala ziyizingxenye ezibalulekile embonini yezemithi yomhlaba wonke - eyangaphambili ngenxa yobukhulu, futhi kamuva ngenxa yokukhula kwayo.
Ukusetshenziswa kwemithi e-US kulinganiselwa ukuthi kuzokhula ku-3-6% CAGR phakathi kuka-2019 no-2024, ukuze kufinyelele ku-$605-635 Billion ngo-2024, kanti ukusetshenziswa kwemali ezimakethe ezithengisa izinto ezithengiswayo, okuhlanganisa neChina, kungenzeka kukhule ku-5-8% CAGR. kuya ku-US$475-505 Billion ngo-2024.
Ukukhula Kwemithi Yomhlaba Wonke
Lezi zifunda ezimbili zizoba negalelo elikhulu ekukhuleni kwemithi emhlabeni jikelele.
• Ukusetshenziswa kwemali kwemithi ezimakethe ezinhlanu eziphezulu zasentshonalanga ye-Europe (WE5) kungenzeka kukhule ku-3-6% CAGR phakathi kuka-2019 no-2024 ukuze kufinyelele ku-$210-240 Bilion ngo-2024.
• Imakethe yemithi yase-China yama-US$142 Billion kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ku-5-8% CAGR iye ku-US$165‑195 Bilion ngo-2024, kanti ukukhula kwezindleko zemithi yase-Japan kungenzeka kuhlale kuncike ku-US$88‑98 Bilion ngo-2024.
I-Global Pharmaceutical Industry
Umsunguli izinkampani ezithaka imithi izoqhubeka nokuhlola izindlela ezintsha zokwelapha kanye nobuchwepheshe, kanye nemikhiqizo ephumelelayo yokubhekana nezidingo zesiguli ezingahlangatshezwana nazo.
Ukugxila kwabo okubalulekile ocwaningweni kuzoba yi-immunology, i-oncology, i-biologics kanye nokwelashwa kwamaseli kanye nezakhi zofuzo.
• Imali echithwe emhlabeni wonke ye-R&D ilinganiselwa ukuthi izokhula ku-CAGR ka-3% ngo-2024, ngaphansi kwaleyo ka-4.2% phakathi kuka-2010 no-2018, kancane iqhutshwa ukugxila kwezinkampani ezinkomba ezincane, ngezindleko zokuthuthukiswa komtholampilo eziphansi.
• Ubuchwepheshe bedijithali buyoba amandla aguqulayo kakhulu ekunakekelweni kwezempilo. Ukuthatha okuqhubekayo kobuhlakani bokwenziwa nokufunda komshini kuzoba nemithelela ebalulekile ngaphakathi kwesayensi yedatha ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukwenza izinqumo, ukuphatha okunezimiso zobumfihlo besiguli, kanye nokusetshenziswa okufanele nokuphathwa kwamasethi edatha abanzi futhi ayinkimbinkimbi.
• Ubuchwepheshe bedijithali buyasetshenziswa kakhulu ekuxhumaneni kwesiguli nodokotela njengamanje njengoba ukubonisana ubuso nobuso kungase kungenzeki ngenxa ye-COVID-19. Kusazobonakala ukuthi lo mkhuba uzoqhubeka yini nangemva kwe-COVID-19.
• Omunye wemithombo ethembeke kakhulu yokukhiqiza imininingwane ebalulekile yesiguli kuzoba idatha ye-genomic, njengoba yenza kube lula ukuqonda isisekelo sofuzo lwezifo kanye nokwelapha izifo ezibangelwa ufuzo ngezindlela zokwelapha ezihlosiwe ezisekelwe kufuzo.
• Abakhokhi (izinkampani ezibuyisela imali) kungenzeka baqhubeke nokusebenzela ukwehlisa izindleko. Nakuba kwenziwa izinhlelo zokuthuthukisa ukufinyelela emikhiqizweni emisha enenani eliphezulu, ukunqanda izindleko kusalokhu kuphezulu ezinhlelweni zabakhokhi ezimakethe ezithuthukile. Lokhu kuzoba nomthelela ekulinganiseni kancane kancane ekukhuleni kukonke kwe izinkampani ezithaka imithi, ikakhulukazi ezimakethe ezithuthukile.
• Ezimakethe ezithuthukile, kuzoba nezinketho ezintsha zokwelapha ezitholakalayo zezifo ezingavamile kanye nomdlavuza, nakuba zingafika ngezindleko eziphakeme ezigulini kwamanye amazwe. Ezimakethe zamakhemisi, ukufinyelela okubanzi ezinkethweni zokwelapha kanye nokwenyuka kwemali esetshenziswa emithini kuzoba nomthelela omuhle emiphumeleni yezempilo.
Izimakethe Ezithuthukisiwe
Ukusetshenziswa kwezidakamizwa ezimakethe ezithuthukisiwe kukhule ku-~4% CAGR phakathi kuka-2014-19, futhi kulinganiselwa ukuthi izokhula cishe ku-2-5% CAGR ukuze ifinyelele US$985-1015 Bilion ngo-2024. Lezi zimakethe zibalele ~ 66% wemithi yomhlaba wonke.
ukusetshenziswa kwemali ngo-2019, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele ku-63% wokusetshenziswa kwemali emhlabeni wonke ngo-2024.
I-USA Pharmaceutical Market
I-USA isaqhubeka nokuba yimakethe enkulu yemithi, accounting kuze kufike ku-41% wokusetshenziswa kwemithi emhlabeni jikelele. Iqophe u-~4% CAGR ka-2014-19 futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ku-3-6% CAGR iye ku-$605-635 Bilion ngo-2024.
Ukukhula cishe kuzoqhutshwa ngokuyinhloko ukuthuthukiswa nokwethulwa kwezidakamizwa eziyisipesheli, kodwa kuzoncishiswa ngokwengxenye amalungelo obunikazi aphelelwa yisikhathi emithi ekhona kanye nezinhlelo zokunciphisa izindleko zabakhokhi.
Izimakethe zaseNtshonalanga Yurophu (WE5).
Ukusetshenziswa kwezidakamizwa ezimakethe ezinhlanu eziphezulu zaseNtshonalanga Yurophu (WE5) kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule cishe ku-3-6% ku-CAGR kuya ku-$210-240 Bilion ngo-2024. Ukwethulwa kwemikhiqizo ekhethekile yeminyaka emisha kuzoqhuba lokhu kukhula.
Izinyathelo zokulawula amanani eziholwa nguhulumeni zokuthuthukisa ukufinyelela kwesiguli kungenzeka zisebenze njenge
amandla aphikisana nalokhu kukhula.
Imakethe yaseJapan yezemithi
Imakethe yezemithi yaseJapan kulindeleke ukuthi iqophe ukukhula okuyisicaba phakathi kuka-2019-24 kuya cishe ku-US $88 Bilion.
Izinqubomgomo zikahulumeni ezivumayo ziholela ekwenyukeni kokusetshenziswa kwemithi ejwayelekile, okuhambisana nokubuyekezwa kwentengo okwehla ngezikhathi ezithile kwemikhiqizo yezemithi. Lokhu kuzosiza ukonga ekusetshenzisweni kokunakekelwa kwezempilo, kwehlise ukukhula kwemboni naphezu kokuqanjwa kwemikhiqizo.
Pharmerging Markets
Ukusetshenziswa kwezindleko zemithi ezimakethe zemithi kukhule ku- ~ 7% CAGR phakathi no-2014-19 kuya ku-$358 Bilion. Izimakethe zakho zakhiwe ~ 28% wokusetshenziswa kwemali emhlabeni wonke ngo-2019 futhi
kulindeleke ukuthi zibhekane nama-30-31% okusetshenziswa kwemali ngo-2024.
Izimakethe zamakhemisi kungenzeka ziqhubeke nokubhalisa ukukhula okusheshayo kunezimakethe ezithuthukile, nge-CAGR engu-5-8% kuze kube ngu-2024, nakuba iphansi kune-CAGR engu-7% eqoshwe ngo-2014-19.
Ukukhula ezimakethe ezithengisayo kuzonikwa amandla ngamavolumu aphezulu okunezimpawu nokumsulwa okuvamile imithi eholwa ngokwandisa ukufinyelela kubantu. Okwakamuva
Imithi emisha yokudala kungenzeka yethulwe kulezi zimakethe, kodwa uma kubhekwa inani eliphezulu lemikhiqizo enjalo, ukuyithatha kwayo kungase kukhawulwe.
Imboni yezokwelapha yaseNdiya
Imboni yezemithi yaseNdiya ingenye ekhula ngokushesha, emhlabeni jikelele, futhi ithumela ngaphandle kakhulu imithi ejwayelekile ngevolumu. Imakethe yokwakhiwa kwasekhaya e-India iqophe i-CAGR engu-9.5% ngo-2014-19 ukuze ifinyelele ku-$22 Bilion futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ngo-8-11% CAGR iye ku-$31-35 Bilion ngo-2024.
I-India ibekwe ngendlela ehlukile njengomphakeli obalulekile wemithi ngobuchwepheshe bamakhemikhali, izindleko eziphansi zabasebenzi kanye nekhono lokukhiqiza ikhwalithi.
imithi ngokuhambisana namazinga okulawula umhlaba wonke. Izoqhubeka nokuba ngumdlali obalulekile emakethe yomhlaba wonke yamajenerikhi.
Imithi Ekhethekile
Isidingo esikhulayo semithi ekhethekile kube yimbangela yokukhula okuqhubekayo ekusetshenzisweni kwemithi emhlabeni jikelele phakathi neshumi leminyaka eledlule, ikakhulukazi ezimakethe ezithuthukile.
Imithi ekhethekile isetshenziswa ekwelapheni izifo ezingamahlalakhona, eziyinkimbinkimbi noma ezingavamile, ezidinga ucwaningo oluthuthukisiwe kanye nokusha (izidakamizwa ze-biologic zezifo ezingapheli,
izidakamizwa ze-immunology, ukwelashwa kwezifo zezintandane, ufuzo kanye nokwelashwa kwamaseli, phakathi kokunye).
Le mikhiqizo yenze umehluko omkhulu emiphumeleni yesiguli. Uma kubhekwa amanani entengo aphezulu, iningi lale mikhiqizo ethathwayo kungenzeka ibe sezimakethe ezinamasistimu okubuyisela aqinile.
Eminyakeni eyishumi, kusukela ngo-2009 kuya ku-2019, umnikelo wemikhiqizo ekhethekile ekusetshenzisweni kwemithi emhlabeni wonke ukhuphuke usuka ku-21% waya ku-36%. Ukwengeza, ezimakethe ezithuthukisiwe, umnikelo ukhuphuke usuka ku-23% wafinyelela ku-44%, kuyilapho ezimakethe ezithengisa imikhiqizo, ukhule usuka ku-11% waya ku-14% ngo-2019.
Ukutholwa kwale mikhiqizo kuhamba kancane ezimakethe zamakhemisi ngenxa yokungabikho noma ukungenele komshwalense wencwadi kadokotela kubantu abaningi. Ukuthambekela kokukhula kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke njengoba imikhiqizo eminingi ekhethekile ithuthukiswa futhi ithengiswa ngezidingo zezokwelapha ezingahlangatshezwana nazo.
Cishe bazobala u-40% wezindleko zemithi emhlabeni wonke ngo-2024, nokukhula okushesha kakhulu okulindeleke ukuthi kube ezimakethe ezithuthukisiwe, lapho umnikelo wemikhiqizo ekhethekile kungenzeka weqe ama-50% ngo-2024.
I-Oncology, izifo ze-autoimmune kanye ne-immunology yizingxenye eziyinhloko esikhaleni, futhi cishe zizohlala ziyizisusa ezibalulekile zokukhula esikhathini sika-2019-2024.
I-Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API)
Imakethe ye-API yomhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele cishe ezigidini ezingama-US $232 ngo-2024, ikhula ku-CAGR cishe ngo-6%. Ezinye zezinto ezibalulekile eziqhuba lokhu ukukhuphuka kwezifo ezithathelwanayo kanye nokuphazamiseka okungapheli.
Isidingo siqhutshwa ukusetshenziswa kokwakhiwa kokukhiqiza ku
ama-anti-infective, isifo sikashukela, imithambo yenhliziyo, ama-analgesics kanye nezigaba zokulawula izinhlungu. Esinye isici ukukhuphuka kokusetshenziswa kwama-API ekwakhiweni kwenoveli ukuphishekela izindlela zokwelapha ze-niche ezifana ne-immunology, i-oncology, i-biologics kanye nezidakamizwa zezintandane.
Ukunakekelwa kwezempilo kwabathengi
Imikhiqizo yezempilo yabathengi ayidingi incwadi kadokotela evela kochwepheshe bezempilo futhi ingathengwa Over The Counter (OTC) esitolo sekhemisi. Usayizi wemakethe yemikhiqizo yezempilo yabathengi ye-OTC yomhlaba wonke ubucishe ube ku-US$141.5 Bilion ngonyaka ka-2019, uqopha ukukhula okungama-3.9% ngo-2018.
Kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ku-CAGR engu-4.3% ukuze ifinyelele ku-~US$175 Bilion ngo-2024. Ukukhuphuka kwemali engenayo etholakalayo yabathengi kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemali ekunakekelweni kwezempilo nemikhiqizo yokuphila kahle yizici ezinkulu, ezingase zikhuthaze ukukhula kwemakethe yomhlaba wonke yemikhiqizo yezempilo yabathengi ye-OTC.
Iziguli zanamuhla ezinolwazi zikholelwa ekuthatheni izinqumo ezingcono zokunakekelwa kwezempilo futhi zihlanganyela ekuphathweni kwezempilo okuphumelelayo ngamathuluzi edijithali. Ukuzuza
ukufinyelela okungaphazamiseki olwazini, umthengi usebenzisa ukukhula amandla, okuholela ekudalweni kwezigaba zemakethe ezintsha namamodeli amasha okunakekelwa kwezempilo.
